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      Agricultural Issues Center
      University of California
      1 Shields Avenue
      Davis, California 95616
      530-752-2320
      agissues@ucdavis.edu
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International Trade

Estimating California’s Agricultural Exports

California Export Data Page (multi-year data in the format below)
Table 1 - California agricultural product export values and rankings
Table 2 - California Share of U.S. Agricultural Exports by Category and Commodity
Table 3 - Major Destinations for California Agricultural Exports
Table 4 - Major California agricultural exports to the top 15 destinations
Table 5 - Major California agricultural exports to the European Union
Table 6 - Ratio of California farm quantity exported to farm quantity produced

What Does the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Mean for California Agriculture?

Daniel A. Sumner, Hyunok Lee, and William A. Matthews. Sep/Oct 2015

Port Slowdown Impacts California Agriculture.
Georgi T. Gabrielyan and Daniel A. Sumner. ARE Update, Vol. 18, No. 4, 2015
The West Coast port delays that began in the summer of 2014 and lasted until near the end of February 2015 cost California agriculture dearly. As the delays extended into the winter, citrus exports were hit while exports of storable crops to Asia also slowed. The story for wine is more complex, because California both imports and exports wine through West Coast ports.

Dairy Policy in Canada and the United States

Daniel A. Sumner, Joseph Balagtas and Martha Hall Findlay.
An integrated North American dairy market will benefit consumers and producers alike, but it requires policy changes on both sides of an open border. To avoid disruptive trade disputes, the United States needs to remove its remaining dairy subsidies in tandem with Canadian reforms to deal with supply management.

Crop Supply Dynamics and the Illusion of Partial Adjustment
Nathan P. Hendricks, Aaron Smith and Daniel A. Sumner, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 2014.
We use field-level data to estimate the response of corn and soybean acreage to price shocks.

The Effects of Policy Expectations on Crop Supply, with an Application to Base Updating

Nathan P. Hendricks and Daniel A. Sumner American Journal of Agricultural Economics 2014.
We develop a dynamic model to assess the effects of policy expectations on crop supply and illustrate the approach with estimates of the effects of base updating in U.S. crop programs.

The 2014 Farm Bill, Commodity Subsidies, and California Agriculture.
Hyunok Lee and Daniel A. Sumner. ARE Update, Vol. 17, No. 4, Mar/Apr, 2014

Disentangling Demand-enhancing and Trade Cost Effects of Maximum Residue Regulations
Bo Xiong and John Beghin
Maximum residue level (MRL) regulations in plant products can create unnecessary trade barriers on one hand and enhance demand via risk mitigation or quality assurance on the other. We stipulate a generalized gravity equation model to disentangle the effects of MRLs on the import demand and foreign exporters' supply. Applying the framework to the MRLs on pesticides imposed by high-income Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, we find that the MRLs jointly enhance the import demand and hinder foreign exporters' supply. In addition, exporters from the less and least developed countries are more constrained by the MRLs than their competitors from the developed world.

New Demand for Old Food: the U.S. Demand for Olive Oil
Bo Xiong, William Matthews, Daniel Sumner
U.S. consumption of olive oil has tripled over the past twenty years, but nearly all olive oil continues to be imported.

Estimating Gravity Equation Models in the Presence of Sample Selection and Heteroskedasticity Bo Xiong and Sixia Chen
Gravity models are widely used to explain patterns of trade. However, two stylized features of trade data, sample selection and heteroskedasticity, challenge the estimation of gravity models.

Crop Supply Dynamics and the Illusion of Partial Adjustment
Nathan P. Hendricks, Aaron Smith and Daniel A. Sumner, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 2014.
We use field-level data to estimate the response of corn and soybean acreage to price shocks.


California Agriculture and Global Challenges: Resources, Prices and Prospects 2012
AIC Director Dan Sumner’s presentation for the California Ag Summit. January 27, 2012.

Regulatory and Subsidy Responses to Variability in North American Agriculture

Prepared for the Conference on Growing Forward in a Volatile Environment January, 2012, Ottawa


California International Agriculture Exports in 2009 - Data (Excel file)
In 1997, AIC formed a partnership with the California Department of Food and Agriculture, Agricultural Export Program to develop estimates of California’s agricultural exports.
(see also AIC Issues Briefs for previous years below)

New Demand for Old Food: the U.S. Demand for Olive Oil
Bo Xiong, William Matthews, Daniel Sumner
U.S. consumption of olive oil has tripled over the past twenty years, but nearly all olive oil continues to be imported.

South Korea-U.S. free trade agreement will lower export barriers for California products

by Hyunok Lee, Daniel A. Sumner. California Agriculture, April-June 2011.
" Once it is approved, KORUS FTA will generate more demand for California products and expand the state's agricultural economy."

Opportunities in the Korean Food Market.
AIC Director Daniel Sumner's presentation for the Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency. Dec 2010.

Import Demand for Brazilian Ethanol: a Cross-Country Analysis
(November 2009, pdf) Barbara Farinelli, Colin A. Carter, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin, Daniel A. Sumner. Analysis of import demand models suggests that the factors influencing demand for ethanol vary across countries with respect to market conditions and regulations.

The Prospective Free Trade Agreement with Korea: Background, Analysis, and Perspectives for California Agriculture
(June 2009, pdf) Hyunok Lee and Daniel A. Sumner. Giannini publication. Series report 09-2. An analysis to the background and future of trade with Korea as well as california's position in this market and a breakdown of market by commodity with respect to trade with Korea.

Marketing Wine on the Web.
Susanne Stricker, Rolf A.E. Mueller, and Daniel A. Sumner.    Choices, (22), 1 (2007): 31-34.
Wine purveyed on the World Wide Web joined many similar ventures with a big splash in the late 1990s. And, as with such ventures, some swam, some just bobbled, while others simply sank.

Perspectives on Farm Policy Reform
(April 2007, pdf) Julian M. Alston and Daniel A. Sumner. This article reviews what has happened to U.S. domestic farm policies and related agricultural trade policies over the past 10 years. The article is concluded with an overview of the policies as they stand today as well as potential outcomes in the 2007 Farm Bill.

U.S. Farm Programs and African Cotton.  International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council Issues Brief, No. 22
(February 2007 html) Daniel A. Sumner. This Brief describes the domestic and international factors influencing US cotton policy: the US Farm Bill, the US-Brazil WTO cotton case, and the WTO's sectoral initiative on cotton.

EU Support Reductions Would Benefit California Tomato Growers
(October - December 2006 California Agriculture, pdf, 5.75 mb) Bradley J.Rickard and Daniel A. Sumner. Simulation model results from a 50 percent reduction in European Union trade barriers and subsidies.

Supply and Demand for Commodity Components: Implications of Free Trade versus the AUSFTA for the U.S. Dairy Industry.

(2006, pdf, 152 kb) by Julian M. Alston, Joseph V. Balagtas, Daniel A. Sumner, and Henrich Brunke.

University of California Executive Seminar on Agricultural Issues, "The WTO and International Trade Prospects" (pdf)
This link contains presentations from the executive seminar on the WTO and international trade prospects. September 2002.

China's Integration with Global Markets
(pdf)
Presentation by Colin Carter presented at the Executive Seminar on the WTO and Internation Trade Prospects.

Agricultural Policy Negotiation Issues between the European Union and the United States (pdf)
This file contains the power point slides for a symposium organized by AIC for presentation at the annual conference of the American Agricultural Economics Association held in Chicago in August 2001. It features presentations by AIC director Sumner and colleagues from Begium, Italy and France.

Food Security, Trade and Agricultural Commodity Policy (pdf)
Paper by Daniel A. Sumner presented at the symposium "Challenging the Agricultural Economics Paradigm," Columbus, Ohio, September 10, 2000.

Agricultural Trade Policy and Food Security (pdf)
Paper presented by Daniel A. Sumner at the International Association of Agricultural Economists Workshop on Food Security, Berlin, August, 2000.

Trade Liberalization and China’s Food Economy in the 21st Century:
Implications to China’s National Food Security
(html)
Paper presented by Jikun Huang, Chunlai Chen, Scott Rozelle, and Francis Tuan at the meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington D.C., February, 2000.

Economic Reform and the Changing Pattern of China's Agricultural Trade (pdf)
Paper by Colin A. Carter and Xianghong Li presented at the June 1999 International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium: China's Agricultural Trade and Policy: Issues, Analysis and Global Consequences.

Economic Consequences of European Union Processing Tomato Subsidies (pdf)
Daniel A. Sumner, Bradley J. Rickard, and David S. Hart analyze the impacts of EU processed tomato industry export subsidies, import barriers, and domestic subsidies on EU producers, consumers and taxpayers and on processed tomato market participants outside the EU.

Agricultural Exports for California
This link provides information on the history, methods and resulting data from the AIC effort to develop methods that result in more accurate statistics for international exports of California agricultural products.

AIC ISSUES BRIEFS

California International Agriculture Exports in 2008
(AIC Issues Brief #36, March 2010, pdf, 450 kb)  William A. Matthews, Georgi Gabrielyan and Daniel A. Sumner
.... Download data used in this brief (Excel file)
.... Also see additional data and methodology at http://aic.ucdavis.edu/pub/exports.html

California International Agricultural Exports in 2007
(AIC Issues Brief #35, December 2008, pdf, 350kb). William A. Matthews and Daniel A. Sumner.
The value of California’s 2007 agricultural exports reached an all time high of $10.9 billion, a 12 percent increase from the 2006 total. The data reported in this AIC Issues Brief describe the international agricultural exports for 2007 and revisions for 2006 and are the product of a collaborative effort between the AIC and the California Department of Food and Agriculture to develop estimates of the value of California agricultural products shipped to international markets.
Data used in creating this brief (Excel file)

California International Agricultural Exports in 2006 (AIC Issues Brief #32, pdf, 360kb)
by Omid Rowhani and Daniel A. Sumner
This year was the fifth consecutive year that California witnessed increases in agricultural export value to foreign destinations. California exports increased by 5 percent in 2006 and reached a record high with total exports nearing $9.8 billion.

EU Support Reductions Would Benefit California Tomato Growers and Processors (October - December 2006 California Agriculture, pdf, 5.75 mb)
Bradley J.Rickard and Daniel A. Sumner. Simulation model results from a 50 percent reduction in European Union trade barriers and subsidies.

California International Agricultural Exports in 2005 (no.31, 2007,pdf)
by Omid Rowhani and Daniel A. Sumner
In 2005 California’s agricultural exports surpassed $9 billion for the first time. The $9.3 billion in exports is a new record and represents a 13 percent increase from 2004.

California International Agricultural Exports in 2004 (no.30, 2005, pdf)
José E. Bervejillo and Daniel A. Sumner
In 2004 California’s agricultural exports surpassed $8 billion for the first time. This represents a 9 percent increase over 2003 and a 25 percent increase over 2002. The data reported in this AIC Issues Brief describe international agricultural exports for 2004 and revisions for 2002 and 2003.

California International Agricultural Exports in 2003 (no.28, 2004, 88kb)
by José E. Bervejillo and Daniel A. Sumner
The data reported in this AIC Issues Brief describe international agricultural exports for 2003 as well as revisions for 2001 and 2002.

An Assessment of Market Shares of California Agricultural Exports in 2002 (Brief no.24, March 2004, pdf)
José E. Bervejillo and Daniel A. Sumner.
This study estimates California's share of selected agricultural commodities in selected markets for 2002. California’s main export market is the United States, but 18 percent of the state’s agricultural production is shipped overseas. We selected the most important foreign markets, analyzed the principal destinations, and generated an estimate of the California share in each market.

California’s International Agricultural Exports in 2002 (no.23, 2003, pdf)
José E. Bervejillo and Daniel A. Sumner. The value of California’s agricultural exports in 2002 remained unchanged from 2001 at about $6.5 billion. The data reported in this AIC Issues Brief describe international agricultural exports for 2002 as well as revisions for 2000 and 2001.

Role of NAFTA in California Agriculture: a Brief Review (no. 21, 2003, pdf)
Henrich Brunke and Daniel A. Sumner summarize the results of a study the Agricultural Issues Center conducted in collaboration with the California Farm Bureau Federation thirteen years after an agreement for free trade with Canada and eight years after Mexico was added to create the North American Free Trade Agreement.

California's International Agricultural Exports in 2001 (no. 19, 2003, pdf)
Jose E. Bervejillo and Daniel A. Sumner examine California's year 2001 international agricultural exports using new data from the continuing AIC effort to produce accurate export statistics for the state.

Emergent E-Commerce in Agriculture (no. 14, 2000, pdf)
Rolf A.E. Mueller provides some background, some current facts, and some interpretation of the role of e-commerce in agriculture.

California's Year 2000 International Agricultural Exports (no 17, 2001, pdf)
Nicolai V. Kuminoff, Jose E. Bervejillo, and Daniel A. Sumner examine California's year 2000 international agricultural exports using new data from the continuing AIC effort to produce accurate export statistics for the state.

California's 1999 International Agricultural Exports (no. 13, 2000, pdf)
Nicolai V. Kuminoff, Daniel A. Sumner and Justin Tamony provide updated export data for 1999 and present highlights from the five years of data compiled by AIC through its effort to develop more accurate methods of producing agricultural export statistics for California.

Data on California's 1998 Agricultural Exports (no.10, 1999, pdf)
Nicolai Kuminoff, Tiffany Bunney, David S. Hart and Daniel A. Sumner provide updated export data for 1998 from the continuing AIC effort to develop methods for producing more accurate agricultural export statistics for California.

Agricultural Impacts of the Asian Economic Turmoil: A California Focus (no. 9, 1999, html)
Daniel A. Sumner and JooHo Song examine the Asian economic situation and the implications for California agriculture.

Improved Data on California’s Agricultural Exports (no. 8, 1998, html)
Daniel A. Sumner, Heather Benson, David Hart and Nick Kuminoff summarize results from a larger AIC project that provided a more solid statistical basis for conclusions about the state’s agricultural exports from 1995-1997.

International Trade and California Agriculture (no. 3, 1997, html)
Colin A. Carter and Daniel A. Sumner discuss how international markets and trade policy affect California agriculture.

RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS

United States South Korea Free Trade Agreement: What it Would Mean for California Agriculture (pdf) by Hyunok Lee and Daniel A. Sumner. This study provides detailed information and analysis of the potential effects of a South Korea United States Free Trade Agreement for California Agriculture on a commodity-by-commodity basis. March 2007.

Economic Impact of the Canadian Cattle and Beef Industry of a Disruption of Exports of Boxed Beef to the United States (doc)
Daniel A. Sumner and José Bervejillo. This report evaluates the potential damage to the Canadian cattle and beef industry if legal challenges were to halt exports of boxed beef from Canada to the United States in the near future. August 2005.

Analysis of a Supply-Control Program Under Uncertainty and Imperfect Competition: Chinese Cabbage in Taiwan (pdf, 2.0mb)
Huang, S-Y, R.J. Sexton, and T. Xia. Working Paper, University of California, Davis, August 2004.

International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, "China Working Papers" (pdf)
This link contains twenty-one academic papers presented at the June 1999 International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium: China's Agricultural Trade and Policy: Issues, Analysis and Global Consequences.

STE Workshop (html)
This link contains ten academic papers presented at the November 1998 North American Forum: Workshop on the Role of the State in International Trade.

Dairy Policies and Trade: Implications for the Next WTO Negotiations
A Special Issue of the Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Co-edited by John Beghin and Daniel A. Sumner. Copies can be ordered from the CJAE website http://pubs.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/.
RELATED LINKS

AIC Director Daniel A. Sumner's University of California, Davis, Agricultural and Resource Economics Faculty Webpage

AIC Associate Director Colin A. Carter's University of California, Davis, Agricultural and Resource Economics Faculty Webpage

International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium

United States International Trade Commission Online Trade Database

Statistics Canada Online Trade Database

United States Department of Agriculture

United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

AIC QUARTERLY ARTICLES
(You may have to browse the Quarterly to find the indicated article.)

Volume 17, No. 1, 2003 (pdf)
Food labeling lacks consistency
Analysis shows another difficult year for exports

Volume 16, No. 4, 2002 (pdf)
AIC sponsors trade forum

Volume 16, No. 2, 2002 (pdf)
2002 Farm Bill raises trade concerns
AIC and CFBF review NAFTA impacts
Korean agriculture studied

Volume 15, No. 3, 2001 (pdf)
Executive seminar features international trade officials, stakeholders and other experts
International exports rebound
International Trade Executive Seminar registration form

Volume 15, No. 2, 2001 (pdf)
State's Ag Trade with China is Examined

Volume 15, No. 1, 2001 (pdf)
Center Study Examines EU Tomato Subsidies

Volume 14, No. 4, 2000 (pdf)
E-Commerce and Agriculture: Executive Seminar
New AIC Publication Views Ag E-Commerce
New "Measure of California Ag" Now Takes Two Forms
Annual Outlook for Wine and Winegrapes

Volume 14, No. 3, 2000 (pdf)
Center Updates State Ag Export Statistics

Volume 14, No. 2, 2000 (pdf)
Symposium Reports on Effects of Dairy Trade Liberalization

Volume 13, No. 4, 1999 (html)
Biotechnology and the World's Poor

Volume 13, No. 3, 1999 (html)
Another Year's Data Added to State Ag Export Estimates
Executive Seminar Looks at Trend to Global Retailers

Volume 13, No. 2, 1999 (html)
China Symposium
Sumner Speaks at WTO Session

Volume 13, No. 1, 1999 (html)
China's Role in Agricultural Trade is Topic of Conference

Volume 12, No. 3, 1998 (html)
New Export Statistics Reported by AIC

Volume 12, No. 2, 1998 (html)
AIC-Generated Export Statistics

Volume 12, No. 1, 1998 (html)
Export Project Continues

Volume 11, No. 4, 1997 (html)
Where in the World Are the Markets?
AIC Director Heads Trade Research Group

Volume 11, No. 3, 1997 (html)
New Center Publication Spotlights State's Foreign Agricultural Markets
Export Data Project Teams AIC and CDFA

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