Agricultural Issues Center
      University of California
      1 Shields Avenue
      Davis, California 95616
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 Analysis of California agricultural issues

    The University of California Agricultural Issues Center (AIC) is a statewide program within UC Agriculture and Natural Resources.
    We study topics such as international markets, invasive pests and diseases, the value of agricultural research and development, agricultural policy and the rural environment among others.
    The issues are often global, but we emphasize implications for agriculture and natural resources in California.
    The audience for AIC research and outreach includes decision makers in agriculture and government, scholars and students, journalists and the general public.

Recent media items:

- TPP could boost California ag exports, researchers say
- Drought costs $1.84B and 10,100 jobs in 2015
- Farmers Switch To Less Thirsty Crops
- Economics of the Drought for California Food & Ag.
- California agriculture: It's worth the water.
    LA Times op-ed, Dan Sumner & Karen Ross
- Why the Drought Won’t Hike Food Prices.      Kiplinger.com
- Export issues facing the grape and wine industries
- California dairy's impact ripples through state's economy
- Food Prices Drought-Resistant. Wall Street Journal Op-Ed
- Hot Winter Prevented a Spike in Food Prices
- CA WaterBlog. Food prices and the California drought
- Drought Not Likely To Cause Higher Grocery Bills
- Drought Is Bad News for Your Budget
- Calif. drought challenges state's businesses
- When water runs dry, farmers focus on profit

- see also AIC in the News











Economics of Walnuts, including the New Cost and Returns Information
AIC Director Dan Sumner's presentation to the 2015 "Advances in Walnut Production" Course

walnutsNew cost and returns study for English Walnuts by UC ANR Agricultural Issues Center A new study on the cost and return of growing english walnuts has been released by UC Agriculture and Natural Resources’ Agricultural Issues Center. The study focuses on establishing an orchard and producing walnuts under micro-sprinkler irrigation in the Sacramento Valley. The economic life of the orchard used in this cost analysis is 30 years. The analysis is based upon a hypothetical farm operation of a well-managed orchard, using practices common to the region. Input and reviews were provided by growers, UC ANR Cooperative Extension farm advisors and other agricultural associates. Assumptions used to identify current costs for the walnut crop, material inputs, cash and non-cash overhead are described. A ranging analysis table shows profits over a range of prices and yields. Other tables show the monthly cash costs, the costs and returns per acre, hourly equipment costs, and the whole farm annual equipment, investment and business overhead costs. The new study is titled “2015 Sample Costs to Establish and Produce English Walnuts in the Sacramento Valley, Micro-sprinkler Irrigated.” This study and other sample cost of production studies for many commodities are available at: http://coststudies.ucdavis.edu.

What Does the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Mean for California Agriculture?
Daniel A. Sumner, Hyunok Lee, and William A. Matthews. Sep/Oct 2015

Dan Sumner on California agricultural Issues and sustainability (video)
Produced for the Forum on Canada's Agri-Food Future, November 2015.

AIC is now housing the Cost and Return Studies program. This program provides production expense and income data for many California crops. It can be found at the same web address as before: http://coststudies.ucdavis.edu/en/

Prospects for the California Milk Pool Quota Market. Sumner, D.A. and J. Yu. Journal of Agribusiness. We find that the Agricultural Act of 2014 has mixed effects on the market for California milk pool quota.

The Effects of Policy Expectation on Crop Supply, With an Application to Base Updating. Nathan P. Hendricks and Daniel A. Sumner. We develop a dynamic model to assess the effects of policy expectations on crop supply and illustrate the approach with estimates of the effects of base updating in U.S. crop programs.

Posters from 2015 ANR Conference
Cost Studies poster 2015
Almonds - contributions to economy poster 2015
Grape rootstock - water savings poster 2015
Asian Citrus Psyllid poster 2015

Effects of Subsidized Crop Insurance on Crop Choices
. Yu, Jisang, (2015)
Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the 2015 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association and Western Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, San Francisco, 2015. See also slides from the presentation.

The Economics of the Drought for California Food and Agriculture.
ARE Update, Vol. 18, No. 5, May/Jun, 2015 Special Issue
- Daniel A. Sumner. "Introduction to the Issue."
- Ellen Hanak and Jeffrey Mount. "Putting California’s Latest Drought in Context ."
- Josué Medellín-Azuara, Duncan MacEwan, Jay R. Lund, Richard E. Howitt, and Daniel A. Sumner. "Agricultural Irrigation in This Drought: Where Is the Water and Where Is It Going?"
- Richard E. Howitt, Josué Medellín-Azuara, Duncan MacEwan, Jay R. Lund, and Daniel A. Sumner. "Economic Impact of the 2015 Drought on Farm Revenue and Employment."
- Daniel A. Sumner. "California’s Severe Drought Has Only Marginal Impacts on Food Prices."

Economics of downscaled climate-induced changes in cropland, with projections to 2050: evidence from Yolo County California
Hyunok Lee, Daniel A. Sumner 2015. This article establishes quantitative relationships between the evolution of climate and cropland using daily climate data for a century and data on allocation of land across crops for six decades in a specific agro-climatic region of California. These relationships are applied to project how climate scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change would drive cropland patterns into 2050. Projections of warmer winters, particularly from 2035 to 2050, cause lower wheat area and more alfalfa and tomato area. Only marginal changes in area were projected for tree and vine crops, in part because although lower, chill hours remain above critical values.

Gabrielyan and Lapsley discuss export issues facing the grape and wine industries

Western Farm Press May 2015.
Presentation slides:
    Introduction to Wine Trade Weighted Exchange Rates
    What Drives Imports and Exports of Bulk Wine?

Contributions of the California Dairy Industry to the California Economy

A Report for the California Milk Advisory Board.
Daniel A. Sumner, Josué Medellín-Azuara and Eric Coughlin May 2015.

USC Schwarzenegger Institute and PPIC Join With State Leaders to Find Solutions to Water Crisis
. April 2015. AIC Director Dan Sumner on panel.
To Watch the WEBCAST of This Event Click Here.
panelDAS AS

Alfalfa and Grass Hay Exports Decline after Seven Years of Dramatic Growth.

Alfalfa Alfalfa and Forage News (Blog) April 28, 2015.
Daniel H Putnam, Bill Matthews, Daniel A Sumner.

Introduction to Wine Trade Weighted Exchange Rates
. Georgi T. Gabrielyan.
What Drives Imports and Exports of Bulk Wine? James T. Lapsley.
Presentations to California Association of Winegrape Growers, April 2015.

Port Slowdown Impacts California Agriculture.
Georgi T. Gabrielyan and Daniel A. Sumner. ARE Update, Vol. 18, No. 4, 2015.
The West Coast port delays that began in the summer of 2014 and lasted until near the end of February 2015 cost California agriculture dearly. As the delays extended into the winter, citrus exports were hit while exports of storable crops to Asia also slowed. The story for wine is more complex, because California both imports and exports wine through West Coast ports.

Why Food Prices Are Drought-Resistant.
California farmers are using a variety of tactics to stay competitive in a global marketplace. Tim York And Daniel A. Sumner, Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2015. (pdf text version)

California’s farms face growing water management challenges
Ellen Hanak, Jay Lund, Charles Burt, Richard Howitt, Josué Medellín-Azuara, Doug Parker, Daniel Sumner, David Zoldoske. Public Policy Institute of California April 2015

Daniel Sumner on the Political Economy of Agriculture
EconTalk Episode with Daniel Sumner Hosted by Russ Roberts. Feb 2015.
Daniel Sumner of the University of California talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about agricultural subsidies in the United States, the winners and losers from those subsidies, and how the structure of subsidies has changed from the New Deal to the present.

Dairy Policy in Canada and the United States

Daniel A. Sumner, Joseph Balagtas and Martha Hall Findlay, July 2014.
An integrated North American dairy market will benefit consumers and producers alike, but it requires policy changes on both sides of an open border. To avoid disruptive trade disputes, the United States needs to remove its remaining dairy subsidies in tandem with Canadian reforms to deal with supply management.

Laying Hen Housing Research Project
The goal of this commercial-scale study of housing alternatives for egg-laying hens in North America was to understand the sustainability impacts of three laying hen housing systems – cage-free aviary, enriched colony and conventional cage. Dan Sumner and Bill Matthews of AIC provided the economic analysis for this study.

Effects of housing system on the costs of commercial egg production
W. A. Matthews and D. A. Sumner. Poultry Science, December 2014.
This article reports the first publicly available egg production costs compared across 3 hen-housing systems.

2013 California Export Data
Table 1 - California agricultural product export values and rankings, 2011--2013
Table 2 - California Share of U.S. Agricultural Exports by Category and Commodity, 2012-2013
Table 3 - Major Destinations for California Agricultural Exports, 2012 and 2013
Table 4 - Major California agricultural exports to the top 15 destinations, 2012 and 2013
Table 5 - Major California agricultural exports to the European Union, 2012 and 2013
Table 6 - Ratio of California farm quantity exported to farm quantity produced, 2012 and 2013
Click here for previous years data

$3 million study aims to boost health of immigrant Latino farmworkers
A new, collaborative study aimed at designing and evaluating worksite-based health programs to lower the risk of obesity and diabetes among immigrant Latino farmworkers has been launched under the leadership of the University of California, Davis.

Contributions of the California Almond Industry to Local, State and National Economies   (click for full report)

Daniel A. Sumner, William A. Matthew, Josué Medellín-Azuara and Adrienne Bradley Dec 2014.
This report describes the growth and current economic relationships in the California almond industry and then estimates the economic contributions and impact of the industry in California and in the Central Valley where the almond orchards and much of the processing are located.

Economic Analysis of the 2014 Drought for California Agriculture
Richard Howitt, Josué Medellín-Azuara, Duncan MacEwan, Jay Lund, and Daniel Sumner. Center for Watershed Sciences University of California, Davis. July 15 2014.

Statistical Review of California's Organic Agriculture 2009-2012
October 2013, pdf, 732KB) Karen Klonsky, Brian D. Healy. This publication quantifies the current size and growth of the organic industry in California in terms of acres, farm gate sales and number of growers statewide and by commodity, commodity group, county, and region, based on California Department of Agriculture registration data from 2009 - 2012.

AIC White Papers on California Agricultural Issues
This series of 15 AIC white papers outlines many major issues facing California agriculture.  They describe the important factual circumstances, policies and economic relationships surrounding each issue. 

Asian Citrus Psyllid Management
The deadly huanglongbing is spreading towards California and threatens commercial citrus production. 

The OSU-UCD Partnership for Agricultural & Resource Policy Research (OreCal) is a collaboration between the Center for Agricultural & Environmental Policy at Oregon State University and the University of California Agricultural Issues Center.
OreCal presentations by AIC Director Dan Sumner:
- Risk Management and Commodity Policy OreCal Review
- Local and National Government-set rules for Production of Agricultural Products

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