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      Agricultural Issues Center
      University of California
      1 Shields Avenue
      Davis, California 95616
      530-752-2320
      agissues@ucdavis.edu
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Climate Change

See also
- Jackson Soil and Root Ecology Lab page.
- THE DAVIS STATEMENT
- California Climate Change Portal
- Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data - 2000 to 2011 California AIr Resources Board


Which California Foods You Consume Makes Little Impact on
Drought-Relevant Water Usage

Nina M. Anderson and Daniel A. Sumner, ARE Update, February 2016
Click here for methodolgy and data.

Economics of downscaled climate-induced changes in cropland, with projections to 2050: evidence from Yolo County California

Hyunok Lee, Daniel A. Sumner 2015. This article establishes quantitative relationships between the evolution of climate and cropland using daily climate data for a century and data on allocation of land across crops for six decades in a specific agro-climatic region of California. These relationships are applied to project how climate scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change would drive cropland patterns into 2050. Projections of warmer winters, particularly from 2035 to 2050, cause lower wheat area and more alfalfa and tomato area. Only marginal changes in area were projected for tree and vine crops, in part because although lower, chill hours remain above critical values.

The Economics of the Drought for California Food and Agriculture.
ARE Update, Vol. 18, No. 5, May/Jun, 2015 Special Issue
- Daniel A. Sumner. "Introduction to the Issue."
- Ellen Hanak and Jeffrey Mount. "Putting California’s Latest Drought in Context ."
- Josué Medellín-Azuara, Duncan MacEwan, Jay R. Lund, Richard E. Howitt, and Daniel A. Sumner. "Agricultural Irrigation in This Drought: Where Is the Water and Where Is It Going?"
- Richard E. Howitt, Josué Medellín-Azuara, Duncan MacEwan, Jay R. Lund, and Daniel A. Sumner. "Economic Impact of the 2015 Drought on Farm Revenue and Employment."
- Daniel A. Sumner. "California’s Severe Drought Has Only Marginal Impacts on Food Prices."

California’s farms face growing water management challenges
Ellen Hanak, Jay Lund, Charles Burt, Richard Howitt, Josué Medellín-Azuara, Doug Parker, Daniel Sumner, David Zoldoske. Public Policy Institute of California April 2015


csa logoClimate-smart agriculture global research agenda: scientific basis for action

This paper arose from the Climate-Smart Agriculture Global Science Conference in 2013. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) addresses the challenge of meeting the growing demand for food, fibre and fuel, despite the changing climate and fewer opportunities for agricultural expansion on additional lands.


Economic Analysis of the 2014 Drought for California Agriculture
Richard Howitt, Josué Medellín-Azuara, Duncan MacEwan, Jay Lund, and Daniel Sumner. Center for Watershed Sciences University of California, Davis. July 15 2014.

Climate Change:
Challenges to California’s Agriculture and Natural Resources

PANEL

AIC Director Dan Sumner (L) adresses the Climate Change: Challenges to California’s Agriculture and Natural Resources Conference in Sacramento.

UC Drought Science, Policy and Management Summit
- AIC Director Dan Sumner's slides available here. All slides available here.
- Video of the conference available here.
- Photos available here.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Opportunities in California Agriculture. Review of the Economics.
Hyunok Lee and Daniel Sumner.Duke University, Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
Although about three-quarters of California farm revenue derives from crop production, crops—mainly tree, vine, and vegetable crops—account for only about one-quarter of GHG emissions. Some studies indicate minimal yield loss from reducing nitrogen fertilizer use, and simulation results show significant percentage reductions in GHG emissions for payments of $20/MTCO2e. The economics of reducing missions from enteric fermentation has been little studied. Manure management to reduce GHG emissions (mainly methane) can be as simple as covering manure lagoons and flaring methane. The more complex option of using manure-generated methane gas to replace fossil fuels has been investigated often. Most case studies and simulations suggest this option is costly. Its economic feasibility depends on specific local conditions, but there is no evidence of large-scale feasibility in California without large subsidies.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Opportunities in California Agriculture. Outlook for California Agriculture to 2030.
Hyunok Lee and Daniel Sumner.Duke University, Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
California agriculture is diverse and complex, producing several dozen major crop and livestock commodities using the state’s great spatial variation of natural and climate resources and well-developed infrastructure of input delivery systems, processing systems, and marketing services. What, where, and how these commodities are produced reflect biophysical, economic, and policy drivers, all of which have and will continue to change. This report examines the statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emissions mitigation potential of alternative futures for California agriculture through 2030. It finds that the dairy industry in California has by far the largest GHG emissions of all the state’s agricultural production systems but that the industry’s growth trajectory is uncertain. Three potential growth scenarios suggest that baseline dairy emissions could decrease by as much as 20% or increase by as much as 40% (almost one-quarter of the entire agricultural sector’s current emissions). This variation in baseline emissions projections may be as large as or larger than the industry’s emissions mitigation potential.

Labor, Water, and California Agriculture in 2014
Friday, April 18, 2014, UC Davis Law School
Click for AIC Director Dan Sumner’s slide presentation.


An Assessment of California Agriculture's Readiness for Climate Change (California Climate and Agriculture Network) CDFA

Climate-Smart Ag Conference, March 2013, includes video of sessions.

Adaptation strategies for agricultural sustainability in Yolo County, California. California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC-500-2012-032.Jackson, L.E., V.R. Haden, A.D. Hollander, H. Lee, M. Lubell, V.K. Mehta, A.T. O’Geen, M. Niles, J. Perlman, D. Purkey, W. Salas, D. Sumner, M. Tomuta, M. Dempsey and S.M. Wheeler. 2012.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-500-2012-032/CEC-500-2012-032.pdf


Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in California agriculture. California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC-500-2012-031.Jackson, L.E., V.R. Haden, S.M. Wheeler, A.D. Hollander, J. Perlman, A.T. O’Geen, V.K. Mehta, V. Clark, and J. Williams. 2012.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-500-2012-031/CEC-500-2012-031.pdf


Potential for adaptation to climate change in an agricultural landscape in the Central Valley of California. Report from the California Climate Change Center. CEC-500-2009-044-D. 170 pp.Jackson, L.E., F. Santos-Martin, A.D. Hollander, W.R. Horwath, R.E. Howitt, J.B. Kramer, A.T. O’Geen, B.S. Orlove, J.W. Six, S.K. Sokolow, D.A. Sumner, T.P. Tomich, and S.M. Wheeler. 2009.
http://ucanr.edu/repository/?get=93564


Climate change: Challenges and solutions for California agricultural landscapes. Report from the California Climate Change Center. CEC-500-2005-189-SF. 115 ppCavagnaro, T., L.E. Jackson, and K.M. Scow. 2006.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2005publications/CEC-500-2005-189/CEC-500-2005-189-SF.PDF

Adaptation Strategies for Agricultural Sustainability in Yolo County
A White Paper from the California Energy Commission’s California Climate Change Center.
Louise Jackson, Van R. Haden, Allan D. Hollander, Hyunok Le,e Mark Lubell, Vishal K. Mehta, Toby O’Geen, Meredith Nile, Josh Perlman, David Purkey, William Salas ,Dan Sumner, Mihaela Tomuta, Michael Dempsey, Stephen M. Wheeler.

Adaptation to climate change in an agricultural landscape in the Central Valley of California.

Jackson, L.E., S.M. Wheeler, A.D. Hollander, A.T. O’Geen, B.S. Orlove, J. Six, D.A. Sumner, F. Santos-Martin, J.B. Kramer, W.R. Horwath, R.E. Howitt, and T.P. Tomich. In press, Climatic Change.

Potential for adaptation to climate change in an agricultural landscape in the Central Valley of California. Report from the California Climate Change Center.
Jackson, L.E., F. Santos-Martin, A.D. Hollander, W.R. Horwath, R.E. Howitt, J.B. Kramer, A.T. O’Geen, B.S. Orlove, J.W. Six, S.K. Sokolow, D.A. Sumner, T.P. Tomich, and S.M. Wheeler. 2009. CEC-500-2009-044-D. 170 pp.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2009-044-F

California's Climate Change Policy: The Economic and Environmental Impacts of AB 32
October, 2010. Sacramento, CA.
(presentations and video available for download)
Presented by The Giannini Foundation and the UC Agricultural Issues Center The conference brought together leading economists, analysts, and executives from academia, the state government, and industry to discuss the impacts of climate change and AB 32 on the California economy and the environment.
Impacts of AB 32 on Agriculture. Daniel A. Sumner and John Thomas Rosen-Molina.
Presentation slides available here.

Economic Effects of Climate Change on California Wine Industry - Research in Progress (Poster)
Calanit Bar-Am and Daniel A. Sumner

Agricultural Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Yolo County
Study objective: Document the history and projections of agriculturally relevant climate change in Yolo County and assess the impacts of climate and climate change on planted acreage of significant crops. AIC, June 2011.

Rice Agroecology
The goal of this website and the research it highlights is to focus attention on crucial issues to improve the livelihoods of poor farmers. This website focuses specifically on problems faced by rice farmers in rainfed lowland areas of Northeast Thailand and others who depend on the rice produced in this area.

The Bioeconomics of Honey Bees and Pollination

A model of beekeeping that incorporates within- and between-year dynamics in the honey bee population.
Antoine Champetier, Daniel A. Sumner, James E. Wilen, 2012

Bee-conomics and the Leap in Pollination Fees

Commercial pollination services are mostly provided by honeybees through a long-standing and well-organized market. Recently, honeybee pests and other problems have reduced available supplies, while expansion of almond acreage has increased peak-season demand. The resulting leap in pollination fees follows from these market fundamentals.
Daniel A. Sumner and Hayley Boriss


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